Himalayan Mega Dam: Green energy for hundreds of millions, but at what cost?

As China deepens its commitment to renewable energy, its latest megaproject - the Medog Hydropower Dam - provides an interesting debate on the hidden costs associated with going green. Set to provide clean energy for hundreds of millions of people, but with potential human rights, environmental and political issues, is this new dam a step forward for renewable infrastructure, or a geopolitical catastrophe waiting to happen?

Renewable energy is one of the fastest-growing sectors globally, due to an international push to cut emissions and combat climate change. The infrastructure used to extract renewable energy ranges from solar panels to wind turbines to geothermal energy. Currently, the largest ongoing renewable project anywhere in the world is the Medog Hydropower Project (MHP), undertaken by the Chinese government across the Yarlung Tsangpo River in Tibet. With completion expected in 2033, and at an estimated cost of 1 trillion yuan ($137 billion), the Medog Hydropower Project is expected to be the world's largest hydroelectric energy source, on a scale that makes the Three Gorges Dam, currently the world’s largest hydropower dam, seem small by comparison. The MHP is estimated to provide upwards of 250 million people annually with clean and green renewable energy, demonstrating China's transition and commitment towards a greener, more sustainable future. 

This emphasis on renewable power through the MHP aligns with China’s broader climate strategy. In a landmark decision, China has recently pledged an enormous 7-10% reduction in its greenhouse gas emissions by 2035 across the economy – a first quantifiable target ever set by the PRC government. This pledge covers all greenhouse gases and marks the start of decarbonisation, as China continues expanding its renewable energy sector and increasing forest stocks, even while coal use remains significant. Despite these positive steps, the project remains highly controversial.

The Three Gorges Dam, China. The world’s largest source of hydroelectric power, holding back so much water that it slows the earth’s rotation by 0.06 microseconds. Image Credit: Pixabay

Construction of the dam is taking place on the Yarlung Tsangpo in Medog, a border county in the southeast of the Tibet Autonomous Region, situated in the foothills of the Himalayas. The MHP will harness the river’s steep drop before it flows into India and Bangladesh as the Brahmaputra, a river that supports the lives of hundreds of millions of people downstream.

China's contentious history with Tibet includes previous resettlement programs and infrastructure projects that have impacted local populations and the environment, drawing the attention of international human rights and environmental organisations. In this case, over 140,000 Tibetan residents have been relocated, often hundreds of kilometres from their ancestral and culturally significant lands. While some reports describe these relocations as voluntary, evidence suggests that coercion, including threats of punishment and deprivation of services, plays a role. Human Rights Watch and UN experts stress the need for free, prior, and informed consent to protect local communities’ cultural and religious rights.

Like all large developments, the MHP requires significant space, which could disrupt fragile ecosystems. Tibet’s high-altitude environment is particularly sensitive to change, making recovery from ecological tipping points difficult. The project could lead to desertification of grasslands and pollution of rivers, with serious consequences not only for Tibet but also for the two billion people in Asia who rely on its rivers, and for the global climate.

Infrastructure development impacts vegetation in several ways:

• Habitat Fragmentation: plant species are separated, reducing biodiversity.

• Altered Water Flow: plants receive less water, affecting animals and disrupting the symbiotic relationships between plants and wildlife.

• Soil Disturbance: drier, nutrient-poor soils are more vulnerable to wind and heavy rainfall, making it harder for plants to survive.

• Microclimate Changes: construction can alter local temperature, wind, and sunlight patterns.

  
  

Together, these changes can amplify vegetation’s sensitivity to climate variability, especially in already fragile ecosystems.

Buddhist monastery in Tibet, China, an autonomous region with its own unique culture, and one ideal for hydroelectric plants due to its location within the Himalayan mountain range. Image Credit: hbeiser on Pixabay

The dam’s impact will not be confined to Tibet. Downstream, the altered river flow could affect freshwater supplies, agriculture, and flood control. In northeastern India, including Arunachal Pradesh and Assam, the river supports nearly 130 million people and six million hectares of farmland. Indian hydrologists have also raised concerns that the dam could block sediment flow, reducing soil fertility and threatening the daily water supply that hundreds of millions of people in India and Bangladesh rely on for drinking, farming, and transport. 

Taken together, the MHP in Tibet and proposed dams in Arunachal Pradesh could reshape the Brahmaputra, with far-reaching consequences for South Asia’s water and food security. In addition to those concerns, experts warn that building dams in this ecologically fragile and earthquake-prone region could have devastating consequences for the Himalayan ecosystem and its people.

Bangladesh, already facing severe water shortages worsened by the climate crisis, relies heavily on the river (known as the Jamuna River at this stage of its flow), as it provides water for 55% of its irrigation, drinking water and fisheries. The river’s flow affects more than 160 million people across the country and, according to a 2022 report by the Bangladesh Environment Ministry, just a small reduction in river flow could lead to a catastrophic drop in agricultural output in some areas. As a result, Bangladeshi officials have requested that China provide an environmental impact assessment, feasibility study, climate impact assessment, and disaster impact assessment for the dam.

Dhaka, Bangladesh - the world’s second most populous city. The city’s 36.6 million residents are reliant on the Ganges-Brahmaputra Delta for irrigation and drinking water. Image Credit: rahmatullah77 on Pixabay

Finally, the project carries significant geopolitical implications. China’s control over the Brahmaputra’s waters has raised fears that it could use this as strategic leverage, further straining relations with India. Indian experts and local leaders have warned that the dam could pose an existential threat to livelihoods and tribal communities in Arunachal Pradesh. A sudden release of water, for instance, could devastate the Siang belt part of the region, destroying land, property, and human life, particularly affecting indigenous groups such as the Adi tribe. 

In response to these concerns, India is considering constructing its own dam on the Siang River in Arunachal Pradesh to mitigate potential water shortages. However, this plan has met strong resistance from local Adi tribal communities, who view it as a direct threat to their land, culture, and heritage. Furthermore, the prospect of duelling dam projects has heightened fears of escalation between China and India, with analysts warning that existing tensions could turn future water disputes into a flashpoint between the two global superpowers.

This project serves as both an engineering marvel and a cautionary tale, demonstrating that while China’s investment in renewable energy, such as the Medog project, underscores its commitment to a sustainable future, the pursuit of these goals must be carefully balanced with environmental stewardship, human rights, and the needs of affected communities.

About the Author:

Sasha has just moved to a new city for her job and has a love for the outdoors, movies, and spending time with friends and family.

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